President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy appears tough on the surface, but it contains a hollow center that can provoke wars in vulnerable regions, particularly in the Western Balkans. Bosnian Serb Leader Milorad Dodik has already indicated that with Trump in the White House the road to secession has become clearer, while Serbian President Aleksandr Vučić may also be emboldened to accelerate his expansionist regional project.
There are five components of Trump’s policy that will encourage mini-imperialists and pan-nationalists in contested regions. First, Trump has asserted that the U.S. will avoid military missions that are not considered important for America’s national security. Trump believes that the Balkans and the eastern part of the continent, should be the sole responsibility of European countries to maintain peace and security. His avoidance of any military guarantees to Ukraine despite Russia’s attacks and occupation underscores this absence of foreign commitments. Hence, Trump is highly unlikely to dispatch U.S. troops to protect Bosnia-Herzegovina or other countries facing armed conflicts in the Balkans.
Second, contrary to all previous U.S. administrations, Trump believes that strength prevails over justice in global politics and wealth over poverty. He displays little concern for concepts such as human rights, democracy, pluralism, minority rights, ethnic or religious equality, self-determination, or national independence. Hence, any appeals to the White House to defend traditional American values will fall on deaf ears.
Third, Trump considers all treaties and agreements that Washington signed in the past as negotiable at best or irrelevant at worst. To demonstrate his disregard for previous historical pledges, he asserts that the U.S. has been cheated in numerous international trade agreements, views NATO as a mechanism for draining America of its military resources, and even questions historic border tracts and the independence of Canada and Greenland. Indeed, an American land grab is no longer unthinkable. As a result, Trump can negate the Dayton accords almost overnight and claim that Washington was deceived and should never have promised to protect the interests of insignificant nations and their territories.
Fourth, there is a pervasive anti-Muslim and Christian fundamentalist stream among some of the most vehement Trump supporters that influence his policies. During his first administration, Trump wanted to ban all visitors from Islamic states claiming that they harbored terrorists intent killing Americans. Some Christian nationalists view Bosniaks and Albanians as alien Islamist elements that dragged America into a war with Christian Serbs. Indeed, they claim that Washington should only have militarily and politically engaged in the region to defend Serbs against Islam and not propped up Bosnia or Kosova as independent states.
And fifth, Trump does not want to spark any conflict with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin whom he believes is a potential global partner. He expresses admiration for Putin as a strong leader of a big state regardless of his authoritarian and imperialist policies. Some of Trump’s advisors are also convinced that Russia can be drawn into collaborating with the U.S. against growing Chinese global influence. Consequently, Trump will not want to anger Moscow by using America’s military against Dodik or Vučić, Russia’s closest allies in the region. He could even try to restrain European powers from intervening against what he may view as legitimate Russian interests in the Balkans.
Dodik is now testing Trump’s White House by sparking a constitutional crisis to challenge Bosnia’s survival. The RS assembly adopted a new draft constitution, nullified the powers of Bosnia’s judiciary, police, and intelligence services, and initiated legislation to form a separate army and intelligence service. Dodik has also defied an arrest warrant issued by Bosnia’s Prosecutor's Office. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly criticized Dodik and urged America’s partners to push back against his “dangerous and destabilizing behavior.” Despite these warnings, Dodik may calculate that he can go over Rubio’s head and appeal to anti-Muslim voices in the MAGA and U.S. evangelical movements by alleging that Serb Christians are in danger from Islamic fundamentalists in Sarajevo. Even if armed conflicts erupt, Trump may not intervene militarily or may engage in “peace talks” that consolidate Bosnia’s partition. Indeed, this is the scenario that Trump seems to be following in Ukraine.
If White House policies allow Moscow to dictate the future shape of Ukraine, this will further encourage pan-Serbian secessionism in the Balkans. Trump’s pressure on Ukraine to cede territory to Russia in order to end the war will be a clear indicator that military action can bring dividends when America is absent. It can convince Vučić that his army can be deployed to expand Serbia’s borders without any strong pushback from Washington and only a tepid response from the EU.
If the White House voices indifference to Bosnia’s future, Vučić is likely to support RS independence as a steppingstone to absorption by Serbia. He will also be strengthened by Moscow’s diplomatic, informational, and military backing, as the Kremlin will see an ideal opportunity to expand its influence. The annexation of Serbian Bosnia will be viewed as bolstering his credentials as the unifier of Serbian lands while distracting attention from ongoing domestic protests against his corrupt rule. In fact, the opposition will be branded as foreign agents working to destroy the Serbian state.
And if Trump withdraws the U.S. military contingent from Kosova, in line with pledges to bring American troops home from Europe, Vučić will interpret this as a green light for seizing Kosova’s northern regions. And with the EU preoccupied in assisting Ukraine and even planning to emplace a peacekeeping force on parts of its territory, the onus will then be on Bosnian and Kosovar military and civilians to defend their countries.
Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC and author of two new books: Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power and Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture
