Contrary to suppositions that Donald Trump would surrender Ukraine to Russia, the re-elected President may be hailed as the US leader who finally decimated the Russian imperial state. In his first few days in office, Trump issued warnings to Russia to end the war in Ukraine and initiated measures that can seriously weaken Moscow’s military capabilities.
Although Trump appears confused as to who started the full-scale war by blaming “both sides,” he also asserts that he knows how to end it. And the focus of his warnings and pressures is clearly Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed a willingness for Trump to mediate and arrange a ceasefire, while Trump is critical of Putin’s resistance to peace talks. The re-elected President also underscored that Russia’s economy is failing and that Putin was destroying his own country through massive war losses. And without a peace deal, Trump is convinced that for Russia “it is only going to get worse.” Trump has also threatened Moscow with high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the US or other countries.
In fact, Russian exports to the US have collapsed since 2022 and numerous heavy restrictions are already in place. The main Russian exports to America are phosphate-based fertilizers and platinum. Nonetheless, Trump can tighten the existing sanctions and further damage Russia’s economy. The energy sector is the most vulnerable to pressure. In its last weeks in office, the Biden administrationintensified sanctions on Russia's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors and its “shadow fleet” of oil tankers that have evaded sanctions. As Moscow is primarily dependent on energy sales, these sanctions can deplete Moscow’s revenue stream by several billion dollars monthly.
As a result of US sanctions, India, the second largest importer of Russian crude oil, is freezing its energy imports from Moscow. China is also halting the purchase of Russian oil due to the rising costs of chartering non-sanctioned tankers. Additionally, Trump called on Saudi Arabia and other major oil producers to reduce the price of oil in order to bleed Russia of revenues that fuel the war. The President’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, reiterated that cutting oil prices to $45 per barrel will push Russia to end the hostilities. The US is also increasing its sales of LNG to Europe, as Trump has reversed Biden’s pause on LNG supplies. This will enable Europe to cut supplies of Russian gas and boost its support to Ukraine without fear of Russian reprisals.
Trump can also apply pressure on Putin by increasing the volume of weapons to Ukraine. The new US National Security Advisor Michael Waltz has stated that Trump was ready to lift restrictions on the supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine in order to force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table. Washington may even leverage $330 billion in frozen Russian state assets by giving the money to Kyiv to purchase US weapons.
Trump’s forceful statements about Putin have caught Putin’s European supporters off guard. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban had to backtrack on his threat to block any further renewal of EU sanctions on Russia. Budapest clearly does not understand Trump’s mentality despite spending large sums of money to lobby in Washington. Contrary to accusations by critics, Trump is not beholden to Putin. Even if Putin has some kompromat material on him, this is now irrelevant. Trump has been charged with various felonies but nothing has impacted on the majority of American voters. If Putin tried to discredit him this would simply intensify Trump’s determination for revenge. Moreover, Trump admires strong leaders and now that his advisers have explained to him the weakness of the Russian economy and Moscow’s enormous military losses, his respect for Putin has diminished.
Trump’s sanctions threats against Putin generated outrage among Russian propagandists and fear among officials who naively celebrated his election victory believing that he would abandon Ukraine. Putin has tried to appeal to Trump’s ego and to question the legitimacy of the Zelenskyy government. This is unlikely to impress Trump’s national security team. Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials have skillfully handled the political transition in Washington and offered to participate in peace talks and even to temporarily desist from reclaiming occupied territories if Russian troops withdraw to the February 2022 military lines.
Kyiv is fully aware that Russia faces an economic meltdown in 2025. Several Western and Russian economists are now convinced that the country is entering a period of stagnation similar to the final years of the Soviet Union. It confronts falling energy revenues, depleted state funds, tighter international sanctions, unsustainable expenditure on the war economy, soaring inflation, manpower shortages, and declining living standards.
Even the Russian imperialist Igor Girkin-Strelkov, the KGB officer who helped launch the initial occupation of Ukraine in 2014, is urging citizens to face reality. He asserts that none of the goals of the “special military operation” have been achieved, as the government in Kyiv looks stronger than in 2022 and Ukraine has not been “demilitarized.” The Ukrainian army contains several hundred thousand troops who are well armed, well-organized, experienced, resilient, and show no signs of collapse. Girkin admits that any Russian military successes are small and tactical with little long-term strategic value.
Moreover, Ukrainian forces occupy Russian territory in the Kursk oblast where tens of thousands of Russian troops and North Korean mercenaries have been killed. Ukraine is also intensifying and expanding its long-range missile and drone attacks deep into Russia, destroying industrial and infrastructure facilities together with oil refineries and storage sites. If Trump follows through on his warnings to further decimate Russia’s exports and boosts weapons supplies to Ukraine, Putin’s resistance to a ceasefire could culminate in economic disaster, regime collapse, and state dissolution.
Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC and author of two new books: Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power and Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture
